How to read a venture scenario with confidence

A scenario is a way to explore a possible future. Its value comes from making the assumptions visible, so an investor can understand which changes matter most. It should support judgement rather than create the impression that a particular outcome has already been secured.

Bolt’s management target case uses a £15m entry valuation basis, a £20.9m August 2026 portfolio reference and a £57.7m target portfolio value in 2027/28.

Management’s company exit targets exceed £800m for CUDO and £120m for JAAQ. The corresponding target holding values for Bolt are £49.8m and £7.9m, assuming 10% dilution per funding round. Company enterprise values are distinct from cash available to members.

Understanding the calculation means looking beyond headline company values. Shares in issue affect ownership, option terms affect proceeds and timing, and growth-share rights determine participation at different outcomes. Each can materially change an investor’s result.

The target multiple compares target portfolio value with the entry valuation basis. It is before any further adjustments for debt, liabilities, expenses, reserves and individual tax. Those adjustments affect net receipts and should not be assumed to be zero.

Used this way, the target case makes the conversation more productive. Investors can ask what happens if exit values, dilution or timing differ. It is not a minimum outcome or a probability-weighted forecast: actual results may be materially lower, including total capital loss.